Macedonia Briefing: Opposition Wins Parliamentary Elections
- Author: International Crisis Group
- Document source:
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Date:
4 November 1998
Introduction
Macedonia's third multi-party parliamentary elections in Macedonia were held on 18 October and 1 November 1998. As a result of the vote, the current government will lose power after six years in office, and opposition parties will form a new coalition government. This briefing paper, prepared by ICG's field analyst in Macedonia, reviews the recent poll, examines the likely shape of Macedonia's next government and outlines the policy agenda facing their incoming administration.Election Results
Although final official results have yet to be released, it is clear that Macedonia will see a change of government before the end of the year. The clear winner of the recent elections is the "Coalition for Changes," which has so far won 58 out of 120 seats in the new parliament. The coalition is made up of the Internal Macedonian Revolutionary Organization-Democratic Party for Macedonian National Unity (VMRO-DPMNE) and the newly formed Democratic Alternative (DA). These two parties will have 46 and 12 deputies, respectively. The main party in the outgoing government, the Social Democratic Union of Macedonia (SDSM) of Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski, managed to win only 29 seats (compared with the 62 seats they held by the end of the old Parliament). The Socialist Party of Macedonia (SPM) managed to win only two seats in single-member constituencies and failed to clear the five-percent threshold needed to gain seats from the proportional list. The Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which campaigned in alliance with the Democratic Party of Macedonia, won four seats, and one seat was won by a candidate of the Union of Roma. The two main Albanian parties, finally, had formed an alliance ahead of the elections in order to maximize the weight of the ethnic Albanian electorate. The Party for Democratic Prosperity (PDP), which has been in government for the last six years, secured 14 seats, while the Democratic Party of Albanians (DPA) - which is generally regarded as more radical - won 11. One seat in the new Assembly has yet to be allocated because the first round of voting in Electoral Unit 34 in the city of Bitola was declared invalid. For that reason, the first poll there was repeated on 1 November, and the second round of voting will take place on 15 November. This seat will almost definitely go to the VMRO-DPMNE/DA candidate, who by just a few votes failed to win the seat in the first round.Complaints and Problems Surrounding the Elections
Just as after the first round of voting on 18 October, there were complaints about electoral irregularities and intimidation following the 1 November poll. In some constituencies the results were close and losing candidates blamed their failures on irregularities during the vote and the count. Both major parties accused each other of bribing voters in order to receive their voting cards and thus prevent them from casting their ballots. There were also allegations of party thugs from both camps intimidating voters in or around polling stations. In several places -such as Kocani- party activists were beaten up. A number of complaints have been filed with the State Election Commission (DEC) and with the courts, but judging from the experience of the first round, they will probably be rejected. Although the polls were largely conducted according to the law and generally assessed as "democratic and fair," some problems remain to be solved. For example, there was a heated debate as to the requirements for winning a seat in the first round. Article 88 of the Election Law states that "[the] candidate who in the first round of voting won the majority of the votes by the voters who have cast their ballots in the electoral district shall be considered to be elected, provided that the number of votes he won is not less than one third of the voters registered [in the district]." VMRO-DPMNE and DA claimed that "majority" should be interpreted as plurality rather than as absolute majority. However, most experts concluded that the article referred to the absolute majority of the votes cast. Indeed, this interpretation had been used in the past elections in 1991 and 1994. This is just one example that highlights the need to clarify certain articles of the election law ahead of future elections. Another major problem was poor communication between the State Election Commission and the parties and media. After the first round, the DEC exceeded the deadlines laid down in the law before it published the official results. This reduced the campaign time for parties, and it also left room for speculation regarding the election process and the tabulation of results. A third major problem that will have to be addressed is the composition of the election commissions. At a district and polling station level, four commission members are nominated by the political parties, two of them by the ruling parties, and two by the opposition. While in theory this ensures that both sides are represented at levels of the election administration, it poses certain problems in areas populated exclusively by ethnic Albanians. Here, all parties requested on the boards had formed an electoral alliance and thus had identical interests. While there is no proof of irregularities, is must be noted that in certain electoral units, turnout approached almost 100 percent. This figure seems to be unrealistically high. As an effect of this, the Albanian parties might have not only secured more seats from the proportional list than they should have received, but it might also have been one reason why the SPM and its allies (a number of small parties representing Roma, Turks, and Muslims) failed to clear the five-percent threshold. 1 Interview with DPT Chairman Erdogan Sarac, 21 October 1998. Sarac also claimed that many ballots for DPT candidates were invalidated because votes had circled the party's logo rather than the number on the ballot. It needs to be stressed again, however, that while there is no proof of irregularities, circumstances in some districts look suspicious and some parties (such as the Democratic Party of Turks in Macedonia, which was in the SPM-led coalition) have claimed fraud.1Forming A Government
According to the Macedonian constitution, the first session of the new parliament must take place within 20 days of the elections (Art. 63). Within 10 days of that session, President Kiro Gligorov must give the mandate to form a government "to a candidate from the party or parties which has/have a majority in the Assembly". Within 20 days of receiving the mandate, the premier-to-be must submit a document detailing his government programme and the composition of the government to the parliament (Art. 90). So far, 19 November seems to be the most likely date for the first session of the new Assembly, which means that the president will have to give the mandate to form a government before the end of this month and that a new government should be presented before Christmas. From the election results it is clear that no government can be formed without the support of the Coalition for Changes. The SDSM acknowledged defeat immediately after the second round, and Crvenkovski said the party would be a "strong opposition." It is equally clear that VMRO-DPMNE and DA for their part will need at least one partner to form a new government. The first candidate for coalition talks is obviously the LDP. LDP Chairman Petar Gosev on 2 November said that "if the Coalition wants us as a partner in the government, we will talk about that." But even more crucial is the question of whether an Albanian party will be part of the next government coalition. VMRO-DPMNE Chairman Ljubco Georgievski during the campaign had said that while he did not object to having ethnic Albanians in his government, he did not want to form a coalition with either the PDP or the DPA. Towards the end of the campaign, however, he avoided similar statements. The Albanian parties, for their part, have not ruled out participation in a government led by Georgievski. Although PDP chairman Abdurahman Aliti between the two rounds ruled out such a possibility, he was less adamant after the second round. DPA Chairman Arben Xhaferi said that cooperation depended on whether his party would have a chance to influence politics as part of a new government. However he expects Georgievski and DA leader Vasil Tupurkovski to approach the PDP first. It is still unclear whether the Coalition for Changes will cooperate with either Albanian party. But there is a distinct possibility that especially Tupurkovski will favor such a solution in order to prevent inter-ethnic relations in Macedonia from deteriorating. After all, the DA presented itself as a "civic" party rather than one based on nationality.2 2It is a different issue how voters regarded the DA. Of its 11 ethnic Albanian candidates, 10 were soundly defeated in the first round by PDP/DPA candidates. It is also quite likely that international circles will exert subtle pressure on the winners of the elections to form a coalition with an Albanian party. "Even before the election results have been finalized, there is speculation as to who will take over which post in the new government. It is clear that Georgievski, as the leader of the strongest party, will be the new prime minister. Tupurkovski will most likely be elected as chairman of the parliament, a position that would best allow him to promote his candidacy for the presidential elections next year. In this case, he would be the strongest contender, since other top politicians (such as Georgievski and Crvenkovski) are widely seen as too young to run for president. It seems that in any possible coalition, VMRO-DPMNE and the DA will keep certain key ministries for themselves. At the moment, it appears likely that VMRO-DPMNE Deputy Chairman Boris Stojmenov will become finance minister, and that VMRO-DPMNE will also nominate the defense minister. The DA is slated to get the Foreign Ministry, which will most likely go to Aleksandar Dimitrov. The Interior Ministry is expected to go to DA Deputy Chairman Vlado Kambovski or to someone from VMRO-DPMNE. The VMRO-DPMNE is also expected to be in charge of economics, justice, social policy, and urban planning, while the DA wants to head the ministries of education, culture and science.The Future
The new government will be faced with many pressing and difficult tasks, chief amongst them, resuscitating Macedonia's economy. Unemployment, which the population regards as the most pressing problem, officially stood at 27.9 percent in August. Direct foreign investment has so far been marginal, and one of the major tasks facing any government will be to attract foreign investors by creating the right climate for investment. Some privatization deals will have to be reviewed and the government will need to take action to fight corruption and organized crime. Equally important are inter-ethnic relations. The Albanian minority will continue to press for certain reforms, most importantly, changes to the constitution. As it stands, the constitution defines Macedonia as a "national state of the Macedonian people, in which full equality as citizens and permanent co-existence with the Macedonian people is provided for Albanians, Turks, Vlachs, Romanies, and other nationalities living in the Republic of Macedonia". Albanians demand that they be recognized as a constituent nation alongside the Macedonians, or that the reference to Macedonia as a "national state of the Macedonian people" be changed. Other demands include the legalization of the Albanian-language Tetovo University and greater representation of ethnic Albanians in the state administration reflecting their numerical strength in the country. (For example, ethnic Albanians are grossly underrepresented in the police force and among army officers, but also among government and municipal employees). In foreign policy, the new government will have to advance Macedonia's integration within European and Trans-Atlantic structures. This will be a long and painful process that will largely depend on the government's economic policies and the treatment of Macedonia's ethnic minorities. The government would be well advised to issue a public warning at the beginning of its term that Macedonia is nowhere near integration with the European Union or NATO, since in the past unrealistic hopes have been fostered by politicians in all camps. Finally, Macedonia will need to renew its efforts to improve relations with its neighbors. Talks with Bulgaria on that country's recognition of the Macedonian nation and Macedonian language are probably highest on the agenda, followed by talks with Yugoslavia on the common border, which had yet to be delineated. Relations with Albania will largely depend on the future treatment of Albanians in Macedonia. While talks with Greece on the issue of Macedonia's name must finally be concluded, on the whole relations with Macedonia's southern neighbor are the least complicated. Note: For further information, please contact Alain Destexhe or Charles Radcliffe at ICG's head office in Brussels (tel. +32 2 502 90 38) or George Biddle at ICG's Washington office (tel +1 202 986 9750)Disclaimer:
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