Situation Analysis: Sierra Leone

Peace Process Stalls, Fighting Resumes

The peace process in Sierra Leone stalled in December, despite all parties insisting on their continued commitment to peace, in principle. The AFRC junta trotted out its now familiar delaying tactic-requesting a renegotiation of the Conakry Accord-and ECOMOG responded with its now familiar provocation. No progress was made. Tensions mounted at the start of the month and by the second week of December there was renewed fighting in the south east between the kamajohs and the junta, particularly around Bo. Zimmi and Bendamu, two towns close to the Liberian border were bombed by ECOMOG. Bendamu was reportedly hit when ECOMOG missed their target of Daru barracks several miles from Bendamu. ECOMOG justified the bombardments by saying that their planes had come under attack while on routine patrols. At least ten civilian casualties resulted. There was intense speculation that Magburaka, located in the centre of the country, also came under aerial attack mid-month. But the AFRC did not denounce the attack and ECOMOG did not lay claim to the attack, causing speculation that the bombardment was an AFRC mistake and the result of "friendly"-fire. The AFRC is in control of a rehabilitated air-strip in the area and it is widely believed that they are re-supplying (ammunition, necessities, possibly an aircraft) through this means. The presence of heavily armed men in Freetown-both in and out of uniform-increased in December and it is believed that the AFRC received a significant arms cache via Magburaka. There was speculation in Freetown that Ghana or Burkina Faso have been re-supplying the junta. Responding to repeated accusations, the Ukraine issued a loosely worded denial that it was selling weapons to the junta. Other areas of the country were calm at the start of December and Freetown papers reported that the cease-fire was being maintained around Kenema by Sam "Mosquito" Bokarie, RUF number two, who is adamant that the civilian population go unharassed. However, the kamajohs, in an attempt to motivate the junta to honour the Conakry Accord, promised to cut off all roads leading to Freetown unless disarmament commenced by 20 December, (three weeks behind schedule) with Kamajoh chief Sam Hinga Norman promising a "Black December". Although some child soldiers were reportedly disarmed in December, no large scale demobilisation occurred and armed boy soldiers were a frequent site on the streets of Freetown. By month-end, fighting was widespread throughout the east and south east with kamajoh offensives commonplace in the region. As promised, the kamajohs succeeded in blocking the main Freetown-Bo highway at the end of the month, but said only the army would be affected; civilian and aid agency traffic would be allowed to pass freely. However, heavy fighting in the area, increased robberies and looting, and the trench the kamajohs dug across the highway, made travel for all impossible. The villages between Bo and Moyamba junction have been burned out and deserted for several weeks.

Leadership

The high-level of tension throughout the country was exacerbated by Johnny Paul Koroma's announcement in a BBC interview on the 19 December that it was unlikely he would hand over power to ousted President Kabbah on 22 April 1998, as agreed in the Conakry Accord. Meanwhile, the ousted President made his first return to home soil since the coup on a surprise visit to Lungi on 21 December. Returning with his VP Joe Demby, Chief Hinga Norman and others, Kabbah defined the visit as a morale booster for the ECOMOG troops and talked big about his return to power, but did little other than provide the junta with an opportunity for spin-control.

Shaky Coalition

There is speculation over who wants to hold on to power and who wants to give it up. The Conakry Accord guarantees amnesty for the junior officers who led the coup, and several are said to be willing to hand-over power. The unknown factor, as always, remains the RUF contingent within the junta. The one constant within the RUF has been their unwillingness to disarm without the participation of Foday Sankoh who remains in detention in Nigeria. Without his participation, disarmament, the cessation of hostilities and peace remain a distant hope. ECOWAS chairman Lansana Kouyate said at the start of the month that there was no direct link between the return of Kabbah and the return of Sankoh, stating that Sankoh's return could "disrupt the peace process". With mixed messages like these, the peace process will remain stalled and Sankoh's rebels will remain defiant and distrustful. The AFRC acknowledges that their RUF brethren will not disarm without Sankoh's release, and admit they are powerless to convince them otherwise. Even if Kabbah is reinstated (and doubts about the likelihood of this are beginning to emerge) and the RUF's Freetown leadership agrees to it, the "boys in the bush" are not likely to accept it. A return to bush warfare seems inevitable. Meanwhile, within the AFRC itself, there is speculation over who is in charge. It is widely believed that Johnny Paul Koroma's elder brother, SFY Koroma and APC cronies of former President JS Momoh are setting the general direction of the government. Despite Johnny Paul's statement that a 22 April hand-over might not happen (interpreted by some as simple realism due to the missed deadlines of the Conakry Accord) it is believed that he is willing to hand-over.

Cabinet Re-shuffled; Budget Announced

In what was perceived by many as an attempt to appear as a legitimate government, the AFRC announced a cabinet reshuffle. Main changes at the secretary of state level include Health, Power and Internal Affairs. The title of "Honourable" will be changed to "People's Revolutionary Leader" and the title PLO (Principal Liaison Officer, there are three) is changed to Co-ordinating Officer. Special Envoys and Ambassadors remain unchanged, meaning that November's alleged coupist Steve Bio still stands as Ambassador Designate. Finance Minister Joe Amara Bangali announced his "budget" and confirmed: government revenues are at their lowest ever levels; the rate of inflation (40 percent) is at pre-1992 levels; the Leone has depreciated by more than 60 percent against the dollar since the coup in May.

United Nations

The UN has said a security assessment will be undertaken in Makeni/Magburaka at the end of January to determine if the "Phase Five" security rating for that area would be altered. However, the UN is unlikely to return to the country in any significant way in the near term. Francis Okela, the UN Special Envoy said that he would open a liaison office at Lungi in order to more closely monitor the situation. Okelo has impressed many observers by defining his own approach, distinct from the influence of the Kabbah supporters. A UN technical survey team is scheduled to visit in mid-January and make a recommendation to the Security Council regarding deployment of military observers. Okelo, who has said that the deployment of observers is a priority, maintains that they could be in place by early February. Additionally, Okelo is committed to 22 April as the date for the restoration of constitutional rule and stated that force would be justified if disarmament was resisted.

Practicalities

It was hoped by some AFRC supporters that the alleged coup attempt in Nigeria mid-month that resulted in the arrest of senior officers (including General Sani Abacha's number two) would serve as regional distraction and prevent any ECOMOG offensive action in Sierra Leone. Although ECOMOG checkpoints were increasingly vigilante throughout the month, there were few reports of confrontations with AFRC. In Freetown, armed robbery and looting continued, despite on-going threats that looters would be shot. In two high-profile robberies, the German embassy was looted and on New Year's Eve, the Iranian Embassy was stripped bare, reportedly by men in uniform. In Koidu in the east of the country, eight supposed armed robbers were shot dead in a football field before a large crowd. Power was almost continuous in Freetown for most of the month, as lubricants to run the generator were smuggled into the capital. However, diesel and fuel are almost non-existent and the favoured targets of looting and theft. Other than vehicles stuffed full of military men, there are few cars on the streets. Food prices continue to increase. Rice is now 50,000 Le for a 50kg bag, up from 17,000 before the coup. Despite promises (again) that schools would re-open, teachers are still not working.

Recommendations

1. Avoid an "all-or-nothing" mentality. After seven months, the AFRC regime is entrenched, but not immovable. The restoration of the Kabbah government in April may not be realistic, but the restoration of democracy may be. All available options, the installation of an interim government and fresh elections, should be considered.

2. Disarmament will not work without a realistic plan of reintegration for all combatants. This must be kept on the agenda-whoever holds power in Freetown.

3. The international community should support the proposal to post UN military observers in Sierra Leone. The presence of UN military observers would provide an important counter-balance to Nigeria's dominant role in ECOMOG.

Freetown, Sierra Leone
9 January 1998