The political and social climate in Macedonia continues to be relatively stable but tense. On most issues, there has been no movement to change the status quo, either domestically or internationally.

Political Paralysis and General Elections

The overriding issue on the national political stage remains to be disagreement between the governing SDSM and opposition parties on when and how to schedule the next general elections. Calls for early elections, as early as March 1998, have been issued by the VMRO and LDP, which are demanding that Prime Minister Branko Crvenkovski dissolve Parliament and admit that the government has lost the confidence of the nation. Although the government has made a show of listening to the opinion of the opposition-a number of highly publicised multi-party meetings were held over the month-the final position issued by the government is that early elections are not on the agenda. Ostensibly, the Government's reason for refusing to consider early elections is that the new election law package has not yet passed. This legislation would introduce a combined system of majority and proportional representation in the Parliament, something that has long been an Albanian political goal. The current system is based exclusively on majority representation and has been a contentious issue since the elections of 1994. Albanian parties and the Macedonian opposition alike contend that the existing system is highly unrepresentative for two reasons: it disenfranchises voters who live in a district where they are a substantial presence but where they cannot carry the district as a whole; it gives equal recognition to districts where an MP represents 500 voters as opposed an MP representing 5,000 voters. Thus, a new election system would has serious implications for districting as well as proportional representation. If this legislation is enacted, it will be a significant step toward making the Macedonian Parliament a more equitably representative body. The Macedonian Parliament meanwhile needs to fill the seat vacated by the removal of Arben Xhaferi, president of the DPA, who had waged a 2-year protest by not attending a single session of the Assembly. Citing by-laws that prescribe attendance requirements, the Parliament very belatedly (1.5 years after Xhaferi had exceed the non-attendance limits) voted to deprive him of his MP status and salary. Although the DPA and other Albanian parties called this a political rather than procedural decision, they did not contest it. Elections have now been scheduled for February 1998, and Xhaferi is again running for his old seat. He and the DPA have announced that if elected-which is a foregone conclusion-Xhaferi will continue his protest and will refuse to attend future parliamentary sessions.

Education

On the educational front, there have been escalating tensions between the Albanian and Macedonian communities, even though an interim agreement had been reached following the turmoil over Albanian-language instruction at the Pedagogical Faculty in the spring of 1997. The Albanian community had long been protesting the failure of the Government to restore Albanian-language instruction for students preparing to become teachers in the public school system. This demand was finally addressed by the state when instruction in Albanian was accepted in the 2-year curriculum at the Faculty, despite weeks of street protests by Macedonian students. When the school year began, however, the Faculty claimed it was unable to fulfil its obligations entirely due to the lack of a sufficient number of qualified Albanian professors to teach the required courses. Albanian students maintain that the Faculty is deliberately stalling in its efforts to find and hire Albanian faculty, whereas the Faculty maintains that qualified professors will be hired when they are located. The faculty's contention that qualified professors are lacking has been belied by the fact that the Dean has dismissed a number of currently employed Albanian and Macedonian professors who have not yet completed their PhD, but who qualify to teach at the Pedagogical Faculty under the interim agreement. The agreement stipulates unambiguously that the Faculty will accept professors with an MA until such time as additional professors with PhDs become available. The Dean, however, has ignored this provision and has fired a few Macedonian and a greater number of Albanian professors from their positions at the Faculty. Consequently, Albanian students first waged a protest that the Government had reneged on its promise. Eventually the entire Albanian student body of the Pedagogical Faculty called a strike which is still in force. The outcome, clearly, is a stand-off that will delay by one more year the graduation of Albanian primary school teachers, who are of critical overall importance to the future of Albanian education in Macedonia. Ethnic Macedonians are already under the impression that Albanian children receive a poor education because Albanian teachers are un- or underqualified; or that teachers are hired because of whom they know not what they know. It is a serious mistake for the country to tolerate the Dean's refusal to fulfil reasonable Albanian needs with reasonable measures. Similarly, it is an equally grave position for Albanians to reject good-faith measures taken by the Government, even if these efforts do not absolutely and immediately redress all Albanian educational grievances. Tetovo University has again become a topic of open controversy as Albanian political leaders have renewed their call for the Macedonian Government to recognise that institution's legitimacy. The repercussions of leaving this question unresolved were clearly articulated by Elisabeth Rehn, Special UN Rapporteur for Human Rights, in her final report on human rights in Macedonia. Ms. Rehn warned that Macedonia would face the dissatisfaction of a generation of Albanian students who had graduated from the university in Tetovo but who would be hard-pressed to find employment because their diplomas are not recognised by the state. Whereas the Government has not responded to this alert, the Albanian political community has by announcing that most Albanian-majority municipalities would recognise the legitimacy of Tetovo University diplomas. This stand pits the authority of municipal governments against that of the national government and promises another confrontation between local Albanian demands and national policy, just as happened with the minority flags earlier this year.

Illegal Arms

The country continues to grapple with the immediate and projected effects of the illegal arms flow into Macedonia from Albania. Macedonian Army border patrols have been interdicting more smugglers carrying Kalashnikovs and ammunition as they cross into the country from Albania near Debar. In one incident, the smugglers had penetrated half a kilometre, but fled back into Albania leaving behind eleven rifles. Other gun-runners have been caught with hundreds of weapons and thousands of rounds of ammunition. The Macedonian press has been paying greater attention to this growing problem. According to some estimates, the number of automatic weapons in circulation would pose a serious challenge to Macedonia's security forces if a conflict were to escalate into an armed confrontation. Macedonian border patrols have also been catching groups of foreign citizens (Bulgarians, Albanians, Romanians, and Ukrainians) who are being smuggled into Macedonia either to work illegally or in transit to Greece. According to official reports, most Albanians coming into Macedonia are either seeking day labour or running arms. Albanian citizens engaged in such border running, whether of labourers or guns, are often themselves armed. Traffic in people, particularly of Romanians going to Greece, is conducted by Macedonians in collusion with truckers who take a fee to transport illegals across the border. The connection between guns and drugs has been commented on frequently by the press, which is correlating the growth of armed violence and the expansion of drug traffic. Concern is mounting that rival mafias increasingly are engaging in street violence to "resolve" their differences, and that such violence is threatening the well-being of ordinary citizens. For example, the plate glass front of a car dealership was demolished by a bomb, which fortunately did not hurt passers-by despite its proximity to the main Post Office. In another incident, a young Skopje girl was struck in the leg by a stray bullet, whose origin has not yet been determined. Furthermore, press reports have been identifying numbers of street criminals as employees of the major political parties, thereby calling attention to the implicit ties between illegal drugs, shady financial operations, and political players. The general public has not yet taken this issue to heart, although individual aspects of the this triangle-especially failing financial institutions-have become topics of public debate. Skopje December 4, 1997
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