Situation Analysis: Sierra Leone

Entrenchment of military regime

On Tuesday 17 June, Major Johnny Paul Koroma, leader of the Armed Forces Revolutionary Council (AFRC), was sworn in as head of State by Chief Justice Samuel Beccles Davies. Koroma stated that he would create a broad based government, would look for quick solutions to bring peace and would "eventually" return the country to democracy. Some police were out on the streets again on Wednesday 18 June, indicating an increased collaboration with the regime.

Arrests of supposed coup plotters

Military leaders arrested 8 military officers and 6 civilians on Monday 16 June accusing them of conspiring with the RUF to overthrow the military junta. The military officers included: Colonel Kes Boyah, Colonel Tom Carew, Lt. Colonel Jan Tucker (from the family of President Kabbah's wife), and Major Francis Gottol, ( the former Chief of Defence under NPRC). The civilians were Elizabeth Loveli MP, AA Koroma, Minister for Parliamentary Affairs, Mr David Qwee, Minister for Local Government, Dr Jalloh MP, Mr Mustapher, liaison officer for State House, and Dr Sama Banya, a medical doctor and a prominent politician in President Kabbah's Sierra Leone Peoples Party, (SLPP). They are being held at Pedemba Road prison.

Civilian resistance

The civic leaders have so far organised a very effective passive resistance to the military coup by not returning to work. They are holding out amongst severe threats from the military junta. Without the civil servants the military junta cannot establish a functioning government. The public order stating that demonstrations will be dealt with severely is still keeping people off the streets, but if shortages develop, citizen protests could increase. On Monday 16 June, the new military leader in Bo met with jeers from citizens calling for a return to democracy.

RUF/AFRC split

Some RUF combatants are leaving Freetown because they think that the AFRC is notdelivering the resolution that they sought. They are probably not going back to the bush, but will disperse looking for food, accommodation, and leadership. Some RUF leaders are integrating into the AFRC.

Humanitarian situation

The military junta propaganda that the Nigerians will bomb Freetown at any time is stirring up fears and inciting people to flee Freetown by boat and land. One humanitarian worker in Freetown estimated that 15-20% of the population had left the city. They are mainly staying within Sierra Leonean borders and it is reported that Makeni and Kambia are desperately full of displaced people. Humanitarian agencies have not done a formal count of displaced people but estimate 5,000 in Kambia central and 8-10,000 in the outskirts. The World Food Programme (WFP) and The International Red Cross (ICRC) distributed food to hospitals and seeds and tools up-country. NGOs have begun assessments missions to Kambia. WFP predicts supplies of rice and other commodities will finish in two weeks. Staple food prices are rising. Agencies estimate that 21,000 metric tonnes of food are left in the country, but they are unsure how to distribute it. They are concerned that distributions will put citizens at risk, but also worried that without prompt distribution it will be looted. A WHO warehouse was looted in Freetown. Fuel remains scarce and there is a fear that power black outs will affect the water purification system. Water borne epidemics may ensue.

Security

The AFRC have called for the Kamajohs to join the AFRC, but the national Kamajoh leader, Ibrahim Bangura, rejected any intention of allying with the military junta and said that he was trying to keep Kamajohs away from the army to avoid conflict. However there are reports that Kamajohs are mobilising up-country and are talking with the Nigerians. Clashes between Kamajohs and army have been reported in Mabroka, Joru, and Zimmi. In many rural areas it is unclear who is in charge: Army, RUF or Kamajohs. An armament stash was opened in Freetown and given out to more young men.

Negotiations

Regional powers have distanced themselves from the AFRC. It seems increasingly probable that they are reluctant to use force and will seek a negotiated settlement. President of Ghana, Jerry Rawlings, said to an AFRC delegation that they would not survive international sanctions. He said the RUF, which had maimed citizens, and the army, which was corrupt and without control or leadership, had no right to overthrow the government. Abacha says he will not receive the delegation and they were turned away in Libya. On Monday 16 June, the AFRC stated that they will accept the deployment of UN and ECOMOG peacekeeping forces to disarm combatants and provide security under a future peace agreement, but they continue to reject the reinstallation of President Tejan Kabbah.

Conclusions

Tension is growing and the disorder is likely to continue and probably worsen. As food and fuel become more scarce, frustration is growing, as is potential for protest and violence. Clashes between the Kamajohs and the RUF / army could become more widespread as conditions worsen. The AFRC continues to hang onto power and is further entrenching their command. The RUF pull back diminishes AFRC control. Their jailing of potentially threatening politicians and officers indicates their insecurity. The split with the RUF has disturbing effects: a likelihood of bands of rejuvenated RUF combatants returning to marauding in the countryside; an effective military intervention complicated by the dispersal of RUF combatants; and a negotiated settlement proving perhaps more difficult as RUF and AFRC grievances are disassociated. Sierra Leonean citizens and politicians are risking their lives to stand up to the military junta. The Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) countries so far are taking a firm stand against the coup leaders and looking for solutions. The longer the current situation drags on, the more established the regime could become and the more difficult to remove. Humanitarian agencies will be forced to negotiate with the regime to bring in food and supplies thereby conceding the AFRC a certain legitimacy. With greater stability and apparent acceptance by the international community, the AFRC may become permanent and Sierra Leone could become an unrecoverable basket-case. Under these circumstances ICG recommends:

1. The British and US governments and the UN Secretary General continue to denounce the coup and insist that the AFRC step down. It also needs to be reiterated that no donor government, regional power or financial institutions will recognise the military junta

2. The British and US governments and the UN Secretary General should demand the immediate release from prison of the military officers, and the democratically elected members of Parliament and Ministers of government. They should publicly support the Sierra Leonean citizens and civil servants that are resisting the rule of the military junta.

3. The threat of support to a military intervention must be made clear to the coup leaders by regional and international governments and organisations.

18 June, 1997