The geopolitical stakes are high as Azerbaijan holds presidential election

Igor Torbakov 10/15/03

The geopolitical stakes in today's presidential election in Azerbaijan are high. Both Russia and the United States have gone to great lengths to curry favor with the ruling party candidate, Ilham Aliyev, and have tacitly endorsed the notion of a dynastic succession in Baku. So far, it appears that Russia is winning the competition for influence in Azerbaijan.

Many officials in both Washington and Moscow have long believed that a voter-ratified transfer of power between retiring President Heidar Aliyev to his son Ilham would offer the greatest chances of maintaining stability in Azerbaijan. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive]. Accordingly, since his elevation to the post of prime minister last August, Ilham has had numerous meetings with top-level American and Russian leaders. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

Driving the US-Russian competition to win Ilham's heart and mind is a desire to influence Caspian Basin energy development and exports. Azerbaijan's strategic position in the global effort to contain Islamic radicalism and terrorism also plays a significant role. The centerpiece of Washington's regional strategy is the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which would circumvent Russia, and thus break Moscow's stranglehold over Caspian Basin energy exports. Russian officials are understandably interested in diminishing BTC's potential. At the same time, the two countries share a strategic interest in keeping Islamic radicalism in check in the country.

In recent years, Heidar Aliyev's administration has succeeded in maintaining a delicate balancing act, expressing a preference for relations with the United States, largely because of the obvious economic benefits, while managing to maintain a relatively friendly relationship with Moscow. [For background see the Eurasia Insight archive].

While the elder Aliyev was healthy, economic considerations, namely BTC development, appeared to dominate Azerbaijan's foreign policy agenda. However, Heidar Aliyev's illness, and the subsequent effort to promote a dynastic transition, has altered Baku's foreign policy calculus. For the time being, politics outweighs economics, and many within the Aliyev administration see Russia as better positioned to provide political support.

The clearest sign of Russia's ascendancy in Baku was the early October visit of Russia's National Security Council Secretary, Vladimir Rushailo. During the visit, Ilham Aliyev stated: "Traditional ties between Azerbaijan and Russia should be constantly improved and strengthened." Rushailo responded with a clear expression of support for dynastic succession. "We have a special interest that the dialogue between our countries and their leaders be continued."

Opposition media outlets in Azerbaijan suggest that Azerbaijani leaders have reached a political understanding with Russia to promote a dynastic succession. "This cooperation is based on the satisfaction of mutual interests," the Azadliq newspaper said in an October 8 commentary. "The ruling clan in Azerbaijan wants Russia to support the falsification of the election outcome and render support to Ilham Aliyev in the tense situation that will arise in the aftermath of the October 15 elections. In return, Moscow would establish control over the bulk of the Azerbaijani establishment."

Azadliq went on to report that the United States is not standing by idly. Citing an "informed source," the newspaper said that on October 7, during Rushailo's visit, US diplomats in Baku held a "tense" meeting with Russia's envoy, Nikolai Ryabov. The US officials reportedly delivered a "harsh warning" to Ryabov, saying Washington "would take appropriate measures" if Russia provided support potential Azerbaijani efforts to either fix the election or crack down on the opposition after the vote. US officials did not specify what retaliatory action that Washington would take, according to the report.

The newspaper speculated that, in the case that US officials determine widespread fraud has occurred, American officials might consider a preemptive move to announce its own election estimates before the official Central Election Commission results are released. Azadliq cited the former Yugoslav presidential election in 2000 as a possible precedent. "In the 2000 presidential elections in the former Yugoslavia, the USA did not wait for the formal election results and announced that [the opposition candidate] Vojislav Kostunica had won. This statement played a significant part in removing the Milosevic government," Azadliq said.

Some observers dismiss such a possibility. Besides the general differences in the domestic political conditions in Baku and Belgrade at the time of the elections, observers point out that unlike the case of the former Yugoslavia, in which Washington steadfastly opposed the former leader Slobodan Milosevic, the United States has cultivated a friendly relationship with Aliyev.

Regarding Russia's position, there may be some strings attached to the Kremlin's backing of Ilham, political analysts in Moscow say. Russian leaders are particularly concerned about being used by Baku. Specifically, they worry that once the political transition period comes to an end, Ilham's administration will once again focus on economics and the relationship with the United States. Accordingly, Rushailo sought assurances from Ilham that Azerbaijan and Russia would continue to develop stronger ties following the election.

Judging by the reports in the Russian media, the younger Aliyev said what the Kremlin wanted to hear. Many Russian political analysts characterized Rushailo's visit as successful. "It is clear that Azerbaijanis see their future only in [the framework] of the most intensive cooperation with Russia," Roman Streshnyov wrote in the military daily, Krasnaya Zvezda.

Other analysts, however, note that Baku's ability to cooperate with Moscow depends, first and foremost, on the Azerbaijani leadership's ability to preserve internal stability. "Azerbaijan's nearest future hinges solely on whether Ilham Aliyev manages to consolidate this nation's power elite," said regional analyst Arkady Dubnov.

In the eyes of many in Moscow, Ilham's biggest challenge, provided he wins the election, will be handling the expected generational shift within the ruling party. Political analysts say that infighting within the "extended Aliyev clan" subsided during the election campaign, but they expect the intra-party struggles to resume in the near-future. And most are not sure whether Ilham could emerge with unchallenged authority.

Sanobar Shermatova, writing in the Moscow News weekly, said Ilham and his close political allies want to promote younger officials within the ruling party hierarchy. However, any such efforts to carry out personnel changes would naturally meet resistances from the "old guys," Shermatova said. "Aliyev senior, as the patriarch of the clan, skillfully preserved order ruling with the iron fist," says Shermatova. She added that since Ilham lacks the political skills possessed by his father, the question of whether he could successfully promote generational change in Azerbaijan cannot be answered at this time.

Editor's Note: Igor Torbakov is a freelance journalist and researcher who specializes in CIS political affairs. He holds an MA in History from Moscow State University and a PhD from the Ukrainian Academy of Sciences. He was Research Scholar at the Institute of Russian History, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow; a Visiting Scholar at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington DC; a Fulbright Scholar at Columbia University, New York; and a Visiting Fellow at Harvard University. He is now based in Istanbul, Turkey.

Posted October 15, 2003 © Eurasianet