Azerbaijan's ailing president tries to allay fears about his health

Clare Doyle 2/22/02

The uncertain state of Azerbaijani President Heidar Aliyev's health is refocusing attention on the country's political stability. Aliyev is recovering from prostate surgery at a hospital in the United States. In an attempt to project an aura of normalcy, the president has given several televised interviews. His actions have allayed many, but not all concerns about the potential for instability.

In the two television appearances broadcast since his prostate operation February 14, Aliyev asserted that he was in daily contact with officials in Baku, and was participating fully in running the country. His assurances have helped to limit the kind of feverish speculation that surrounded previous visits to the clinic in Cleveland, Ohio, where he is being treated.

"I was well before and I still am. Let no one doubt this. But of course, you need some rehabilitation and treatment after surgery. I am going through this period now," Aliyev said during the second of his two interviews, broadcast by the ANS channel on February 19.

Aliyev made his first trip to the Cleveland clinic in 1999, when he had a coronary bypass. In his absence, government activity reportedly came to a virtual standstill, drawing unwelcome attention to the fact that Aliyev had concentrated all decision-making power in his own hands. During another stay at the clinic in September 2000, Azerbaijani officials had to issue denials of a Russian report that the president had died – the consequence of a media strategy based on secrecy and denial.

This time, the situation appears to have been handled more sensitively. The only consequence so far connected to the president's hospitalization has been the postponement of a visit to Tehran, which was due to have taken place February 18-20. Since the state visit had already been postponed at least five times, this latest delay appeared unlikely to cause any major problems, local analysts said.

The Azerbaijani opposition has been relatively quiet, despite a rally held February 16 that resulted in several dozen arrests. The party that organised the protest, the Azerbaijan Democratic Party, says it put off further anti-Aliyev rallies until at least March. Some opposition leaders may believe that any action taken now could backfire, as people might perceive it as unfair to challenge the president while he is ill.

The government's tendency towards secrecy has somewhat undermined its message that Aliyev remains in firm day-to-day control. Many Azerbaijanis believe that Aliyev's first post-operative television appearance was taped before the procedure. That prompted the second Aliyev interview – a broadcast that featured audio without any accompanying video images.

Many Azerbaijanis perceived this interview as a more realistic approach for an old man recovering from major surgery. Aliyev sounded far less rehearsed, addressing his interviewer by name and commenting spontaneously on his convalescence at the hospital. Most observers were prepared to believe that this time, the president really was speaking live from Cleveland.

"I keep in touch by telephone, receive information from the republic and individual officials. I give the necessary instructions," Aliyev said in the second interview. "I am very pleased that while I am away from the republic, there is stability, comfort in the republic and order is on the normal level."

There has been far less obvious speculation in the often unruly Azerbaijani press about the presidential illness and its possible consequences. Although this may partly be a result of pressure on opposition media outlets to adhere to the official line, it also reflects a degree of satisfaction with the available information. Diplomats report that the government appears to be conducting business as usual, and there is little sense that the country has come to a standstill. The Azerbaijani people may also have become accustomed to their president leaving the country every year or so for health reasons. To that extent, officials have succeeded in lowering the profile of the president's health problems.

Nonetheless, there is an undercurrent of anxiety, fuelled by the 78-year-old president's recurring health problems. Although there have been moves to install the president's son, Ilham, as a leader-in-waiting, he commands far less popular support than his father, prompting concern about social instability after the elder Aliyev's departure from office.

An indication that top government officials are also concerned about possible instability is the recent proposal to extend the president's term from five years to seven. Although President Aliyev said he opposed the idea, it is unlikely to have been tabled without his knowledge.

Opposition commentators have also warned that there are contingency plans in place to deal with any social unrest during the president's absence. One commentator, well-known newspaper editor Rauf Arifoglu, went so far as to warn opposition leaders to keep a low profile until the president's return. Azerbaijanis have a well-founded fear of a return to the political and social chaos that marked the first years of independence, which could also threaten millions of dollars of foreign investment in the country's oil infrastructure.

Social instability is, of course, notoriously difficult to predict. It may be triggered by the perception of a power vacuum as well as by its reality. This is undoubtedly why those around the president are working so assiduously to downplay his prostate operation. As long as the president makes a good recovery and is back in the country within a fortnight, as forecast by his senior aides, there should be little for them to worry about. But if his recovery falters, or if there is even a perception that something is being hidden from the public, officials could become aware very quickly that there are limits to what media management can achieve.

Editor's Note: Clare Doyle is a freelance journalist based in Baku.

Posted February 22, 2002 © Eurasianet