Assessment for Russians in Tajikistan

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Chances of ethnic Russian rebellion in Tajikistan are virtually nonexistent. Ethnic Russians have not suffered repression from the Tajik regime, do not face official discrimination, and are not mobilized politically. While ethnic Russians maintain their group identity, this has not translated into political action. Likewise, the probability of ethnic Russian protest in Tajikistan is also low. In the future, as in the past, ethnic Russians dissatisfied with the situation in Tajikistan are more likely to emigrate to Russia than to agitate for an improvement in their status in Tajikistan.

Analytic Summary

The collapse of the Soviet Union left populations of ethnic Russians in many of the newly independent states, including those of Central Asia. While under Soviet rule, these populations in general had enjoyed privileged positions (ADLOST = 1), which had unleashed ethnic and territorial disputes within the successor states dating back to the pre-communist era. Tajikistan typically represents a part of what Edward Shevardnadze calls "a crescent of conflict" in the former Soviet territory. From May 1992 to January 1993, a brutal civil war visited vast destruction on Tajikistan when regional and ethnic factions took up arms in the name of communism, democracy, and Islam. While a peace agreement was reached in 1997, skirmishes continue between the government and factions of the opposition which rejected the peace accords. In 2000 and 2001, the government launched initiatives against two such factions, resulting in the deaths of their leaders.

The civil war has provoked a massive exodus of all ethnic groups into the country's neighbors and into the European parts of the former Soviet Union. This included emigration by a significant portion of ethnic Russians. A study by Porter and Saivetz argues that underneath the conflicts between neo-communists and so-called democratic and Islamic forces lie ethnic tensions among Tajiks, Uzbeks, and Pamirs, as well as clan conflicts among groups, some of which like Khojandis in the more Russified northern industrial belt enjoyed greater power and prosperity under Soviet rule.

Ethnic Russians in Tajikistan were naturally caught in the crossfire of the war. Lolaeva argues that the bulk of the Slavic and Russian-speaking population in Tajikistan had taken an extremely negative position towards the "Demo-Islamists" and favored the communists not because Russophones supported the latter, but because they were perceived as a lesser evil. The perceived choice was between stability and violence, and the Russians overwhelmingly supported the forces of stability, namely the so-called neo-communists.

While many Russians have left the country and continue to emigrate (DMEMEC00-03 = 1), the Tajik government has encouraged them to remain, as they represent an important source of skilled labor. A December 1996 law was designed to encourage Russians to stay by allowing for dual citizenship, but economic conditions nevertheless continue to fuel ethnic Russian emigration.

The relatively small number of ethnic Russians remaining in Tajikistan is largely demobilized politically. No formal political organizations represent ethnic Russian interests, although there are a small number of organizations promoting cultural interests (GOJPA03 = 1); protest is virtually nonexistent (PROT90X = 1; PROT02-02 = 0). Now that Tajikistan has granted Russians the option of attaining dual citizenship, continuing with Russian language education (for both Russians and Tajiks), and continuing widespread use of Russian in government and business, there are virtually no demands or grievances made by the Russians against the government. There was no political, economic, or cultural discrimination reported in the 2000-2003 period (POLDIS00-03 = 0; ECDIS00-03 = 0). Reports in the 1990s suggested widespread societal discrimination, although this has been less apparent in recent years, and there were no recent reports of any intercommunal violence (INTERCON01-03 = 0).

References

The Congressional Roundtable, The Briefing Book on the Former Soviet Union, February 1993.

The Europa Yearbook 1993.

Keesings Record of World Events, 1990-94.

Lolaeva, S., "Tajikistan in Ruins," Democratizatsiya, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1993.

Nexis Library Information, 1990-2003.

Porter B.D. & C.R. Saivetz, "The Once and Future Empire: Russia and the Near Abroad'," The Washington Quarterly, Vol. 17, No. 3, 1994.

Richter, Anthony, "Springtime in Tajikistan," World Policy Journal, Summer 1994.

US State Department Human Rights Report: Tajikistan (2001-2003).