Assessment for Russians in Uzbekistan

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

There is little risk of ethnic Russian rebellion in Uzbekistan in the foreseeable future. While ethnic Russians share a strong group identity, this has not translated into political organization or political violence. Societal discrimination against ethnic Russians is strong, and there is some degree of political discrimination, but Uzbekistan's government has not directly repressed the Russians and there is no indication of economic discrimination.

Chances of Russian protest also seem low. Ethnic Russians have no recent history of protest and seem likely to deal with grievances in the future as they have in the past: through emigration to Russia and a reliance on Moscow to pressure the Uzbek leadership for change. Another factor is that ethnic Russians seem to fear the emergence of an Islamic regime in Uzbekistan more than they fear the staunchly secular regime currently in power, and therefore have shown a greater degree acceptance of the regime's authoritarianism and cultural Uzbekization policy.

Analytic Summary

Ethnic Russians first came to the Central Asian region as representatives of the Russian Empire, with the aim of overseeing the colonization process. Thus, few settled in the region before the Soviet period other than in a military capacity. After the Soviet Union was established, millions of Russians were settled throughout Central Asia in accordance with Moscow's "Sovietization" plans which, for the largely Muslim, Turkish-speaking Central Asians, meant "Russification." Though the Soviet regime allowed many indigenous languages to develop in order to better propagate its ideology, in practice Russian became the dominant language of political life, administration, and higher education throughout the USSR.

At present, the assertion of national, cultural, and religious traditions have become integral to the de-colonization process in the region. In response to demands of growing opposition groups, changes occurred under Communist Party chief Gorbachev's policy of glasnost in the late 1980s. Each Union Republic passed a language law declaring the native tongue as the state language, an issue that in several republics became a rallying point for nationalists. Even with these changes, Russians maintained privileged positions within the Union Republics and rarely learned the language of the titular ethnic group. Hence, after independence and without the oversight of a centralized power in Moscow favoring the status of Russian. ethnic Russians found themselves in an awkward position.

The local assertion of national identity resulted in the formation of several Russian-oriented political groups claiming that rights of ethnic Russians were being violated. Though no major instances of violence directed specifically toward Russians occurred in any of the republics, hundreds of thousands of Russians have emigrated from Central Asia, which further aggravated a difficult economic situation for the five new republics. In addition, the status of Russians resident outside the Russian Federation has become a key political question, with hardliners calling for the defense of Russians who live in the "Near Abroad."

Uzbekistan, like the other countries of Central Asia, did not openly discriminate against ethnic Russians initially. While this policy largely remains in place today, there are now signs of discrimination in hiring practices of the civil service and high-level government positions (POLIC701-03, POLIC801-03 = 1). Craftily constructed laws also prohibit Russians from becoming politically equal to Uzbeks. Restrictions on Russian political parties, the open refusal of the Uzbek government to grant dual citizenship to Russians, and the refusal to grant official language status to the Russian language are discriminatory practices hidden behind the guise of jurisprudence. It appears that as the Uzbek government has become increasingly confident since independence, it has asserted itself against Russia and ethnic Russians to a greater, but still limited, degree. Nevertheless, economic discrimination remains nominal (ECDIS01-03 = 0), and only societal discrimination plays a serious role against the Russians in a number of categories (CULPO101-03 = 1; CULPO201-03 = 1).

Russians in Uzbekistan are finding it difficult to adapt to their loss of privileged status within the state (ADLOST = 1). Grievances are found in all three categories: political, economic, and cultural. Politically, there are demands to participate in central government and to be guaranteed equal civil and political rights (POLGR303, POLGR403 = 2). Economically, there have also been complaints that ethnic Russians are being pushed out of jobs to be replaced by ethnic Uzbeks (ECOGR503 = 2); and culturally many ethnic Russians resent limits on Russian-language instruction and the denial of official status for Russian (CULGR303 = 1; CULGR403 = 2)

While the trend of Russians returning to Russia continues, these numbers have declined in recent years (DEMEC00 = 2; DEMEC01-03 = 1). Nevertheless, we can expect this trend to continue if the current economic malaise that has afflicted Uzbekistan since the late 1990s is not reversed.

Ethnic Russians have a strong group identity (COHES9X = 5), but this has not translated into strong political organizations. No incidents of protest or violence has been reported in recent years (PROT99-03 = 0; REB99-03 = 0).

References

Akiner, Shirin, "Islam in Post-Soviet Central Asia," in Goldman M.F. (ed.), Russia, the Eurosian Republics, and Central/Eastern Europe, 5th ed., (Guilford, CT: The Dushkin Publishing Group, 1994).

Central Eurasian Studies Review (Publication of the Central Eurasian Studies Society). Volume 2, Number 3, Fall 2003.

Congressional Roundtable, Briefing Book on the former Soviet Union, February 1993.

The Europa Yearbook 1993

Freedom House, Nations in Transition 2003: Uzbekistan.

Klatt, Martin, "Russians in the Near Abroad," RFE/RL Research Report, Vol. 3(32), August 1994.

Keesings Record of World Events, 1990-94.

Liu, Morgan (2002) "The Perils of Nationalism in Independent Uzbekistan" The Journal of the International Institute (USA: University of Michigan).

Nexis Library Information, 1990-2003.

"One-Man Rule in Uzbekistan: A Perspective from Within the Regime," (authored by a high-ranking official in Uzbekistan on condition of anonymity), Democratizatsya, Vol.1(4), 1993.

US State Department Human Rights Report: Uzbekisan (2001-2003).

US State Department International Religious Freedom Report: Uzbekisan (2001-2003).