Assessment for Russians in Turkmenistan

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Due to the authoritarian nature of the Turkmenistan government, it is unlikely that the highly cohesive Russians will begin to engage in protests or militant activity, despite the fact that they are experiencing discrimination and have recently been encouraged to leave the country. The Turkmenistan government appears to be on a trend of becoming even more restrictive, particularly in regards to the use of the Russian language. Without opportunities to become part of the ruling apparatus or the ability to create organizations to pressure the government, there appears to be no way for Russians to alter these policies. In order to maintain its close working relationship with Turkmenistan, the Russian government seems unwilling to fully pressure the Turkmenistan government on the Russian minority's behalf. Without the ability to protest and still experiencing some difficulty leaving the country, the Russians in Turkmenistan are left with few options. If the language restrictions continue to be enforced or are made more severe, it is possible that the Russians may resort to some form of militant activity. However, they have witnessed how the Turkmenistan government has repressed both minority groups and Turkmen themselves. Thus, the group may conclude that the punishment likely to result from such militant activity would be far greater than any potential reward.

Analytic Summary

Turkmenistan is the most authoritarian of the former Soviet Republics but remains the second wealthiest in Central Asia, largely due to its oil and gas reserves combined with its relatively small population. The government has remained in power since independence, and in 1999 the President, Saparmurad Niyazov, was elected for life by the legislature. Niyazov has a cooperative relationship with Moscow, although that has not translated into any visible changes in the cultural, political, or economic position of the Russians. Most of the country's land is arid, rugged and mountainous. The country is rich in hydrocarbons, but their exploitation requires manpower and technology, so the regime initially found it beneficial to cultivate the aid of skilled and educated Russians, although this has changed as the government now feels better able to satisfy the demand for skilled labor with ethnic Turkmen; this has lead to a deterioration in conditions for ethnic Russians.

The Russians arrived in Turkmenistan at the beginning of the 20th century (TRADITN = 4) and have remained as highly cohesive (COHESX9 = 5) as the state will tolerate since Turkmenistan's independence. The Russians are both physically distinctive from the majority (RACE = 3), and they have different customs and cultural practices – mainly differences between the Islamic and Orthodox Christian faiths (CUSTOM = 1).

Many Russians emigrated soon after independence, and the minority that remained has been very quiet. They are found mostly in the larger cities of the country (GROUPCON = 1). The few advantages this minority held in the initial years after independence have slowly been reduced, with even their symbolic privilege of dual citizenship abrogated in 2003.. Recent years have seen an increased drive to restrict the Russian language and promote Turkmen, although Russian is still heard regularly in city centers (CULPO103 = 2; CULPO203, CULPO303 = 3). Ethnic Russians increasingly see their economic prospects deteriorating and have sought Russian citizenship and a return to Russia (DEMEMP03 = 2; DEMEC03 = 1). While the Orthodox Church is the only recognized religion other than Islam (BELIEF = 3), it operates under very restrictive conditions, with credible reports that church leaders must teach some elements of President Niyazov's philosophy.

The Constitution of Turkmenistan de jure provides equal rights and freedoms to all citizens, regardless of ethnicity. However, in practice, Russians and the majority of the population (regardless of ethnic membership) are excluded from the political system because of the closed nature of the system itself; in recent years, more explicit discrimination against ethnic Russians has increased (POLDIS00-02 = 3; POLDIS03 = 4). The Russians are under-represented in positions of higher power within the administration and the civil service (POLIC703 = 1; POLIC803 = 2), and have come under increasing economic discrimination, with many losing their positions beginning in 2003. Turkmen is a mandatory subject in schools and Russian has been all but outlawed in the educational system (CULPO303 = 3); while Russian can still be found in business transactions and occasionally in government, it is strongly discouraged.. In addition, various Russian language media outlets have been shut down one by one. In 2000, the Russian language radio stations were closed, and Russian newspapers were banned earlier; there is now only one Russian language daily, which is produced by the government, compared with 22 Turkmen dailies (CULPO203 = 3). The infiltration of media sources from outside the country has also been blocked. However, most of the conflict and persecution appears to be at the official level, with no reports of tension between the Russian and Turkmen people or of any ethnic-based violence (INTERCON01-03 = 0).

Due to the authoritarian nature of the government, all potential opposition to the regime is not tolerated. As a result, there are no specific organizations dedicated to the promotion of Russian concerns. The Russians in Turkmenistan have had to rely on the Russian government and the good working relationship between Russia and Turkmenistan to ensure their good treatment. With the removal of all Russian troops and border guards at the end of 2000, it is unknown how much future influence the Russian government can have over the situation of Russians in Turkmenistan. As the situation for Russians deteriorated in 2001-2003, the Russian government continued to issue statements condemning the violation of civic rights, although this did not have any visible impact. Without any active organizations promoting the group's interests, it is somewhat difficult to determine their main demands and grievances. There is some information, however, from those Russians who have recently left the country. Primarily the demands included the right to participate in the decision-making process, for equality in civil rights and status (POLGR303, POLGR403 = 1), and a demand to change the 2003 policy abrogating the dual-citizenship policy (POLGR503 = 1). Other demands were to use Russian in dealings with the government (CULGR403 = 2), to teach and publish in their own language (CULGR303 = 3), and greater economic opportunities (ECOGR303 = 2).

With the severe oppression of any opposition in Turkmenistan, it is no surprise that there has been no militant activity and very little protest. During 2002 and 2003 the limited protests were primarily verbal in nature and only a couple of street protests with no more than 10-20 people protesting the new citizenship law (REB00-03 = 0; PROT00 = 0, PROT02 = 1, PROT03 = 2). Perhaps other protests have occurred and are just not being reported in the state-controlled media. Any form of dissent is strictly not tolerated; therefore it is not possible to determine if the Russians have contemplated such activity.

References

Nexis Library Information, 1990-2003.

The Europa Yearbook 1993.

Congressional Roundtable, Briefing Book on the Former Soviet

Union, February 1993.

Keesings Record of World Events, 1990-94.

"Home to Russia," An Interview with Zaionchkovskaia, Zhanna, Head of the Laboratory of Problems of Migration of the Population, Institute of Employment Problems, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russian Social Science Review, Vol. 35, No. 3, 1993.

RFE/RL various reports (2001-2003).

US State Department Human Rights Report: Turkmenistan (2001-2003).