Assessment for Poles in Lithuania

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Poles living in Lithuania have virtually no risk of rebellion and only a small likelihood of protest at the moment. The current treatment of the group by the government is generally positive. The widely inclusive nature of Lithuanian law has placed many ethnic Poles in political office throughout Lithuania. Still, some Polish groups (e.g., Union of Poles in Vilnius) continue to cite Lithuanian policies and practices that they believe are discriminatory. Tensions are present, but are not generally considered to be high.

Possible problems do loom, however. Since the early 1990s, the group has exhibited persistent levels of protest, usually taking the form of a few demonstrations, rallies, strikes or small riots (PROT90X-98X = 3). Also, the group's geographic concentration in the Vilnius region (REGIONAL = 1, GROUPCON = 2), the historical disagreement between Poland and Lithuania over that city, as well as the supposed loyalty of Poles living in Vilnius to Poland, continue to raise fears by many Lithuanians of potential reunification with the neighboring Poland. The fears are exacerbated by propaganda activities by some Polish factions in Lithuania.

Several factors combine that seem to diminish the threat of violence in the near future, however. Chief among these are the relatively good Lithuanian economy, the good state of Polish-Lithuanian government relations, and the large number of Polish-Lithuanians in the parliament and local governments who have a considerable stake in the present government. Overall, Lithuanian law is widely considered the most liberal of the Baltics by international observers with regard to minority rights, and the Polish minority is well represented in both political and social organizations. In addition, Lithuania has consolidated its parliamentary democracy, is now a member of the European Union, and continues to make significant progress in strengthening its economy, which again, decreases the motivation for rebellious action.

To sum up, the dispute seems to be mainly centered on the cultural autonomy of the Polish community versus the perceived threats to Lithuanian culture from the Poles (internal as well as foreign).

Analytic Summary

Geographically concentrated in the Vilnius and Soleczniki districts (REGIONAL= 1, GROUPCON = 2), Poles of Lithuania represent a linguistically, culturally and religiously distinct group (ETHNOG = 1, LANG = 1; RELIGS1 = 1; ETHDIFXX = 3). Historically, Lithuanians have peacefully coexisted with their neighbors to the East and West until the 12th century when they increasingly had to face the expansionist pressures by the Germans. In 1569, in response to the common threat, Lithuanians and Poles became formal allies. The two would not be separated as such until the final partition of Poland in 1795 when Lithuania was incorporated into the Russian Empire.

After the Russian Revolution of 1917, the Revolutionary government of Soviet Russia ceded the Baltic region to Germany in its armistice. Upon the defeat of Germany in World War I, each of the republics gained full independence, and by 1919 each had functioning sovereign governments. In April 1919, Polish forces entered and established control over the Vilnius region of Lithuania, claiming it as historically Polish territory. In response, the Lithuanian government used the help of the Soviet Russian government in evicting the Poles from the Vilnius region. In October, Lithuanians and Soviets signed the Treaty of Suwalki, designating the Vilnius region as Lithuanian; however, the Poles immediately marched back into Vilnius and maintained control until 1939. On August 23, 1939, the Molotov-Ribbentrob Non-Aggression Pact was signed between Germany and the Soviet Union, dividing up Eastern Europe for conquest by the two powers. By the summer of 1940, Soviet troops had seized control of the governments of the Baltic Republics. Under Soviet rule, the country's minorities were not under any real or perceived threat (ATRISK2 = 0).

After the fall of Communism, Lithuania, together with the other Baltic states opted for independence, provoking fierce opposition by its Russian and Polish population who feared potential future discrimination in an independent Lithuania. Most of the fears would gradually dissipate with the Lithuanian government's adoption of highly inclusive citizenship and minority legislation (ATRISK1 = 0, ATRISK3 = 0).

Compared to other Lithuanians, Poles living in Lithuania do not face any significant discrimination or disadvantage. The group is not subject to demographic or ecological stress (DEMSTR03 = 0; ECOSTR03= 0) and the minority policies adopted by the Lithuanian government are generally regarded as among the most liberal in the region (POLDIS03 = 0; ECDIS03 = 0). Still, some Polish groups continue to cite Lithuanian policies and practices that they believe are discriminatory. Among the main demands and grievances are: reform of administrative and territorial division, the reinstatement of property rights on land, and a number of linguistic and cultural demands, including spelling of Polish given names and surnames, establishment of a Polish university, approval of school leaving Polish language examinations, increased supply of textbooks in the Polish language, etc.

Conventional politics continues to be the main strategy for advancing group demands. Some of the most active political organizations acting on group's behalf currently are the Union of Lithuanian Poles, Congress of Poles of Lithuania, Lithuanian Polish Minority, The Alliance of Lithuanian Citizens, and The Lithuanian Polish Election Action, among others. Generally, however, the Polish political scene in Lithuania suffers from a lack of unity which, according to many commentators, detracts from its ability to achieve its political goals. The lack of Polish unity was again evident in 2002 when The Polish People's Party (Polska Partia Ludowa) was created as a breakaway faction of the Union of Lithuania Poles.

There have been no significant protests by the group reported in the recent years (PROT98-03 = 0). Likewise, there was no rebellious activity by the group (REB98-03 = 0). Poland continues to be the main outside ideological sponsor advocating on behalf of the group. Official relations between the Polish and Lithuanian governments remain cordial, however.

References

The ACCESS Guide to the Former Soviet Union: One Nation Becomes Many. Washington, DC: ACCESS, 1992.

ACCESS Guide to Ethnic Conflict in Europe and the Former Soviet Union. Washington, DC: ACCESS 1994.

Agence France Presse.

The Baltic Nations and Europe. John Hiden and Patrick Salmon.

British Broadcasting Agency.

The Financial Times.

Lexis-Nexis 2001-2003.

New York Times.

Polish Press Agency.

Polish News Bulletin.

Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty Daily Reports and Research Reports ["Seeking Solutions to Baltic-Russian Border Issues" RFE/RL RR 3(13): 25-32 (April 1, 1994)].

Reuters and Reuter Textline.

Russian Press Digest.

U. S. Department of State Bulletins, "Latvia Human Rights Practices, 1993"; "Lithuania Human Rights Practices, 1993, 2001-2003"; "Estonia Human Rights Practices, 1993."

Warsaw Voice.

The Washington Post.

The Washington Times.

World Directory of Minorities.