Assessment for Poles in Belarus

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Poles in Belarus have no risk of rebellion (REB45X-98X; REB99-03 = 0); the likelihood of the group's protest, however, seems to be on the rise as a result of new cultural and political restrictions levied against the group over the past few years.

Prior to a 1995 referendum held in Belarus, the position of the Polish minority seemed to have been stable. Relations between Poland and Belarus were quite good as Belarus saw Poland as its only corridor to the West while Poland saw Belarus as a market which it could develop without much competition from the West. As a result, Poles in Belarus were treated without much apparent discrimination and Poland was unlikely to press claims of discrimination against Belarus. This situation was very close to that of the Russians in Belarus.

The 1995 referendum, which reintroduced Soviet-era symbols as well as policies promoting the Russian language, situated the ethnic Poles in a different political context. The referendum indicated that Belarus was becoming increasingly dependent on Russia, which raised fears among its ethnic Polish and Belarusian population of possible future discrimination. Ethnic Poles first showed resentment with Belarus's new orientation in 1997 when President Lukashenko accused the Union of Poles in Belarus (UBP) of organizing provocations against authorities. In 1999 the UBP complained to representatives of the Polish parliament about being discriminated against by Belarusian authorities. In addition, the group voiced a number of cultural and educational complaints in response to the decision of the Belarusian State committee for Religious and Ethnic affairs not to open a new Polish language school in Belarus and its proposal to bar national and cultural associations from political activities.

The situation of the Belarusian Poles is likely to deteriorate in the future. The group will continue to face economic hardship and political exclusion along with the rest of the population, which is amplified by the social exclusion experienced by the group. Government policy is neutral towards the group on economic and political affairs (POLDIS03 = 3; ECDIS03 = 3). Despite the clear linguistic policy of russification being pursued by the Lukashenko regime, Poland's foreign policy has not indicated a robust political strategy in response, although it does offer a degree of political and diplomatic support to Polish parties in Belarus.

Analytic Summary

Concentrated predominantly along the Polish border region (GROUPCON = 2), Poles in Belarus stand out as a group with a distinct ethnic and linguistic identity (LANG =1, BELIEF = 3, RELIGS1 =1, ETHDIFXX = 6). Historically, Belarusians descended from Slavic tribes which migrated to the area from Central Europe during the sixth century CE (TRADITN = 1). By the ninth century, the Principality of Kiev had subordinated many principalities in Belarus and, following the Mongolian invasion of the thirteenth century, the Grand Duchy of Lithuania annexed them. During this period, the Belarusian people began to diverge linguistically and culturally from their Slavic kin to the south and east. Much like the rest of the region, Belarus has experienced numerous re-drawings of borders (AUTLOST = 1), which significantly influenced its ethnic composition. Following the Russo-Polish War of 1919-1921, the territories of Belarus were divided between Poland and the Soviet Union. Within the Soviet system, Belarus became the Byelorussian Soviet Socialist Republic (BSSR) and was allowed to expand considerably. In 1939, the lands which were ceded to Poland in 1921 were absorbed into the BSSR. Major demographic changes occurred during and after World War II. The large Jewish population was virtually annihilated by the Nazis (also many were evacuated from the territory prior to the German invasion). Following the annexation of western Belarus by the Soviet Union, many Poles moved west to Poland-proper, thus decreasing the large Polish minority. At the same time, many Belarusians are said to have migrated into Belarus (from Poland and Lithuania). After the war, Russians were sent to the BSSR to take up positions in the government and bureaucracy. During the period 1921 to 1979, the division between Belarusian and Russian became blurred and, gradually, many Belarusians began to identify themselves closely with the Russian Federation (in a 1991 referendum, 80% of Belarusian voters preferred to remain a part of the Soviet Union).

Following the declaration of the country's independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Belarus made a number of positive steps to protect the Polish minority living in its territory. An education agreement signed between Poland and Belarus in 1992 provided for the establishment of a Polish language school, while the Law on Citizenship passed in 1993 guaranteed equal treatment of the entire populace. In 1993, a party of the Polish minority, the Polish Democratic Alliance, held its first congress. This positive situation changed, however, following the election of Alexandr Lukashenko in 1994 as the country's president. What promised to pose restrictions to the ethnic Poles to gain greater representation in Belarus's power structures was the 1995 referendum whereby Belarusians voted to reduce their country's independence vis-a-vis Russia and establish Russian as an equal official language with Belarusian. In 1999, the Union of Belarusian Poles, another Polish political party, demanded the building of a new Polish-language school in the town of Navahrudak. Their request was denied, and restrictions on instruction in Polish remains in place today (CULP0399-03 = 2; CULGR03 = 3). In that same year, the Belarusian State Committee for Religion and Minorities suggested that changes should be introduced into the law "On Public Associations" to bar national and cultural associations from political activities. This suggestion was primarily directed against the Union of Belarusian Poles which had been blamed for "straining relations with government agencies and taking part in opposition activities" (CULP0701-03 = 1). The proposal violates a 1992 Polish-Belarusian treaty which guarantees the right to set up organizations representing national minorities. There are also signs of religious discrimination against ethnic Poles, manifested by the strong official support for the Belarus Exarchate of the Russian Orthodox Church and restrictions on the activities of other religious denominations (CULP0101-03 = 1).

Poles have exhibited relatively low levels of protest, and recently have not protested at all (PROT00-03 = 0), opting exclusively for conventional political means to voice their demands (GOJPA95-03 = 2). From among the existing political organizations, the Union of Belarusian Poles (UBP) stands out as the most active group defending the minority's rights.

Virtually all major regional and international organizations (EU, OSCE, UN) and many foreign governments have expressed their concerns regarding the status of human rights in Belarus. In addition, the Polish government representatives, including President Kwasniewski, have repeatedly offered diplomatic and political support for the group.

References

Stephen R. Burant, "Polish-Belarusian Relations." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 1, no. 37, 18 September 1992, pp.41-45.

Keesing's Record of World Events, 1991-94.

Nexis-Lexis, various reports, 1990-2003.

Ustina Markus, "Neighbors see a 'Weak Link' in Eastern Europe." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 2, no. 49, 10 December 1993.

--, "Belarus: Slowly Awakening to New Realities." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 3, no. 1, 7 January 1994, pp.42-46.

--, "Conservatives Remove Belarusian Leader." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 3, no. 8, 25 February 1994, pp.13-18.

--, "Belarus." RFE / RL Research Reports, Vol. 3, No. 16, 22 April 1994, pp.9-13.

Irena Maryniak, "Language and the Nation." Index on Censorship, Vol. 22, no. 3, March 1993, p.6.

Graham Smith, ed., The Nationalities Question in the Soviet Union, (New York: Longman) 1990.

RFE/RL, Various Reports (2001-2003)

U. S. Department of State, "Report of Human Rights in Belarus,." 1993, 2001-2003