Assessment for Uzbeks in Tajikistan

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

The risks for Uzbek rebellion appears to be low to moderate in the foreseeable future. Although protest has been low to nonexistent, Uzbeks do have a history of rebellion. There are significant concentrations of Uzbeks in northern Tajikistan, although they seem to exhibit fairly low levels of cohesion and very little organization. Factors contributing to the risks of rebellion include increased regime authoritarianism and persecution of Hizb ut-Tahrir followers, which are primarily Uzbek, in the north of the country. Further, Uzbeks are underrepresented in parliament and the administration and suffer from widespread societal discrimination. The government of Uzbekistan has tightening border controls in recent years, to the discontent of Uzbeks in Tajikistan.

Ethnic Uzbek protest is likely to remain at low levels for several reasons, most significantly their low level of political organization and mobilization. However, it is unlikely to die out completely given continued governmental restrictions. The Tajik government, after years of civil war and instability, has finally stabilized, although the endurance of this regime is unknown.

Analytic Summary

Tajiks and Uzbeks are often portrayed in studies of Central Asia as one people who speaks two different languages (LANG = 1). This assertion has its reasons: historically, both ethnic groups share many things, beginning with the Persian, Arab and Turkic cultural legacies common to Central Asian peoples in earlier centuries, and ending with the establishment of the Soviet Socialist Republic of Uzbekistan in 1924, of which Tajikistan remained a part for five years. The differentiation of the two ethnicities started with the separation of the Soviet Socialist republic of Tajikistan from Uzbekistan in 1929 and ripened after the two republics declared independence from the Soviet Union in 1991.

Ethnic Uzbeks are concentrated in Leninabad oblast, north of the capital Dushanbe, in the eastern Ferghana Valley. Additional Uzbek populations live in Hissar (west of Dushanbe) and in the Kurgan-Tyube region. There is also a substantial Uzbek community in Khatlon province, a rural region in the southwest which is among the country's poorest (GROUPCON = 3). The Khojand and Hissar regions are among the more economically developed areas of Tajikistan.

Ethnic Uzbeks face widespread societal discrimination in Tajikistan as well as some formal governmental restrictions. The Uzbek language is marginalized (CULPO201-03 = 1; CULPO300-03 = 1); Uzbeks are underrepresented within the political system; and President Rahmonov'ss government has actively sought to keep ethnic Uzbek leaders, such as Colonel Mahmud Khudoberdiev, out of political life (POLIC703 =1; POLIC803 = 1).

Ethnic Uzbeks have also faced dangers to personal security that have not been adequately addressed by the central government. The ethnic Uzbek mayor of a town in Khatlon district disappeared in September 1999 under mysterious circumstances. After the signing of the peace treaty ending the civil war in 1997, there were multiple murders of ethnic Uzbeks in the Panj district. As a result, some ethnic Uzbeks moved to areas more heavily populated by Uzbeks or to neighboring countries. However, since 2000, there have not been no indications of continued widespread violence or fatalities, although tensions have been evident (INTERCON01 = 1, INTERCON02-03 = 0).

Ethnic Uzbeks have expressed primarily political and cultural grievances. Political grievances focus on their lack of representation in the central government and the perceived inequality in civil rights and status vis-à-vis ethnic Tajiks (POLGR203 = 3; POLGR403 = 1;POLGR503 = 2).. Cultural grievances are primarily linguistic, demanding greater rights to teach and publish in Uzbek and to use Uzbek in their dealings with the government (CULGR303 = 2; CULGR403 = 3).

Ethnic Uzbek political organization has been weak historically (GOJPA95 = 1; GOJPA98-03 = 2). They are primarily represented by umbrella groups. The Society of Uzbeks in Tajikistan, founded in 1992, seeks to promote the interests of ethnic Uzbeks and also to promote interethnic cooperation. The Islamist movement Hizb ut-Tahrir also is heavily ethnic Uzbek, with followers concentrated in the north. This organization, banned in Tajikistan, promotes the nonviolent overthrow of secular governments in the region in favor of an Islamic caliphate.

Historically, Uzbek protest in Tajikistan has been low (PROT90, PROT91 = 1), although it increased slightly in the late 1990s before declining again (PROT00-03 = 0). However, since Tajikistan's independence, ethnic Uzbeks have periodically employed violence against the central government (REB94 = 5; REB97, REB98 = 3). The 1997 and 1998 rebellions were both led by supporters of Uzbek leader Mahmud Khoduberdiev who, during the civil war, fought with the government. Khoduberdiev's supporters are believed to have bases in southern Uzbekistan, although Uzbekistan denies giving them any material support.

References

Askar Akayev, "Kyrgyzstan: Central Asia's Democratic Alternative," Democratizatsiya, Winter 1993/94.

CSCE Briefing, Human Rights and Democratization in the Newly Independent States of the Former Soviet Union, January 1993.

Digest, Monthly Newsletter of the CSCE.

Europa Publications, Far East and Australia 1994.

Europe Year book, 1998, vol.II

Keesings Record of World Events, 1990-94.

Library of Congress on-line country reports

Nexis-Lexis, various reports 1990-2003

US State Department Human Rights Reports (2001-2003)