AOUN'S DEPARTURE

 

1.   INTRODUCTION

For the last fifteen years Lebanon has been torn by civil war. Do the departure of General Michel Aoun and the implementation of the Taif accord presage peace? Observers of the conflict in Lebanon show guarded optimism. In fact, while the continuation of the Taif process is a first step toward peace, the eviction of General Aoun has had a destabilizing effect, at least in the short term. As for the future of the Lebanese nation, it is inextricably linked with not only the Taif agreement but with such important factors as the influence of foreign powers, including Syria and Israel, and the outcome of the Gulf crisis.

2.         THE BRIEF REIGN OF MICHEL AOUN

Michel Aoun, Commander-in-Chief of the Lebanese Army, was appointed acting head of the Lebanese Government on 22 September 1988. Muslims, however, took exception to the appointment of the Maronite Christian General and recognized Selim Hoss, a pro-Syrian Sunni, as acting Prime Minister. Two governments were then set up: one in East Beirut, headed by Aoun, and the other in West Beirut, headed by Hoss. The partition of Lebanon thus became official (Cordellier et al. 1989, 327).

In March 1989, Aoun declared a "war of liberation" to drive out the Syrian troops that had been stationed on Lebanese soil since 1976 (The New York Times 14 Oct. 1990; Cordellier et al. 1989, 327-28; The Associated Press 13 Oct. 1990). He also refused to ratify the Taif accord, the "Charter of National Reconciliation" adopted in August 1989, because it did not set a deadline for the withdrawal of Syrian troops (The Associated Press 13 Oct. 1990). He isolated himself further in November by refusing to recognize the presidency of René Mouawad and that of his successor Elias Hraoui, who maintained close ties with Damascus (Le Monde 14-15 Oct. 1990a).

Aoun found himself alone against everyone in the spring of 1990, as Samir Geagea, commander of the Lebanese Forces, had allied himself with President Hraoui's army following the fierce struggle which had pitted him against Aoun's forces at the beginning of the year (Libération 20-21 Oct. 1990). The constitutional amendments put forward in the Taif accord were voted into law in August. The following month, Hraoui proclaimed the Second Lebanese Republic (Le Monde 23-24 Sept. 1990).

On 13 October 1990, supported by Syrian troops, Hraoui stormed the Presidential Palace and the Ministry of Defence (The Associated Press 18 Oct. 1990; Le Devoir 20 Oct. 1990; The New York Times 22 Oct. 1990). A few days later, Lebanese Army bulldozers began dismantling the "green line" which, since 1976, had divided Beirut and its suburbs into a Christian sector and a sector with a Muslim majority (AFP 16 Oct. 1990a).

On 13 November, most of the militias completed their withdrawal from Beirut, before the 19 November deadline provided in the framework of the Taif accord (The New York Times 13 Nov. 1990).

3.              IS THE SITUATION IN LEBANON RETURNING TO NORMAL?

The reunification of Beirut seems to be moving ahead. Is it however possible that a sound and peaceful state structure is being rebuilt in Lebanon?

According to observers of the conflict in Lebanon, the Taif accord is a first step on the road to peace for Lebanon. At the moment, however, Lebanon is probably more unstable than it was previously (Sigler 26 Oct. 1990; Hudson 25 Oct. 1990; Osseiran 25 Oct. 1990). Acts of vengeance, the interests of the various militias and the reticence of confessional communities in regard to constitutional amendments are obstacles to national reconciliation in Lebanon.

The assassination of Dany Chamoun, son of former Lebanese President Camille Chamoun and an influential Christian leader, and his family on 21 October 1990, and the massacre of Michel Aoun's comrades-in-arms on 13 October 1990 clearly illustrate the climate of reprisals now prevailing in the Lebanese capital (Le Monde 19 Oct. 1990; La Presse 23 Oct. 1990). These murders have spread fear in the Christian community. Aoun's supporters in particular feel targeted (La Presse 23 Oct. 1990); they denounce the absence of security measures in Metn, the region controlled by Aoun until he was driven out (Mideast Mirror 22 Oct. 1990, 23). According to Ms. Osseiran of the Save Lebanon Organization in Washington, anyone currently displaying an anti-Syrian attitude is a potential target (Osseiran 25 Oct. 1990). Several observers believe that the politico-religious conflicts which have torn Lebanon apart for over fifteen years will continue to result in accounts being settled for some time to come (Mideast Mirror 22 Oct. 1990, 23; Sigler 26 Oct. 1990; Hudson 25 Oct. 1990; Osseiran 25 Oct. 1990).

Added to the instability and fear is the uncertainty as to the dismantling of militias, even though this is provided by the Taif accord. In the first place, dissolving the militias is not in Syria's interests, as they provide a pretext for Syria's presence on Lebanese soil (Libération 20-21 Oct. 1990). Secondly, although most militias have now left Beirut, they are not necessarily ready to lay down their arms (The New York Times 13 Nov. 1990; Libération 20-21 Oct. 1990). The Lebanese government will have to handle Hezbollah, for example, with tact, since it still holds twelve Western hostages. Moreover, Syrian authorities must contain the conflict between the pro-Iranian Hezbollah and the Syrian-supported Amal movement. In the context of the Gulf crisis, Syria cannot afford to strain its relations with Tehran (The Ottawa Citizen 30 Oct. 1990; Le Monde 24 Oct. 1990). Accordingly, together with Iranian authorities, Syrian authorities supervised the signing of a peace agreement between the two militias on 5 November 1990 (The New York Times 6 Nov. 1990). As for Walid Joumblatt, head of the Druze PSP (Progressive Socialist Party) movement, he has decided to cut back his strength, but demands that his men be taken into the army and police, and most importantly, that the Syrian Army be deployed in Beirut to guarantee security there. The militias had still not laid down their arms on 13 November 1990 (The New York Times 13 Nov. 1990). According to John Sigler, Professor of Political Science at Carleton University and a specialist on the Middle East, it could be a year before the reopening of "Greater Beirut" (Beirut and its suburbs) is realized (Sigler 1 Nov. 1990).

Furthermore, the new division of powers within the Lebanese government leaves some groups dissatisfied. According to Professor Sigler, Sunni Muslims gained the most from the constitutional amendments (Sigler 26 Oct. 1990). The Prime Minister, who under the Pact of 1943 must be a Sunni, now has additional powers. This is bound to displease Shiite Muslims, the largest confessional group in Lebanon, who continue to hold only the office of Speaker of the Assembly. Nevertheless, the secretary general of the Hezbollah, Sheikh Subhi at-Tufayli, is reported to have been asked to join the Cabinet (The Christian Science Monitor 15 Oct. 1990). The Druzes are also unhappy with the new division of powers. Walid Joumblatt, for example, calls for the creation of a Senate which would be presided over by a Druze (Libération 20-21 Oct. 1990). The Lebanese Forces, the only Christian faction along with the four Muslim factions invited to join the Cabinet, want Christians to be given one third of the seats so as to balance confessional representation within the Cabinet (The New York Times 13 Nov. 1990).

Several observers of the Lebanese scene consider, however, that the future of Lebanon rests not only on the Taif accord but on factors of broader scope, in particular the presence of Syrian and Israeli troops, which constitute a major obstacle to the sovereignty of the Lebanese state, and developments in the Gulf crisis (Libération 20-21 Oct. 1990; The Christian Science Monitor 15 Oct. 1990; Time 29 Oct. 1990).

4.  EXIT AND RETURN

Although the Lebanese state consolidated its authority in Beirut during October and November, it cannot fully ensure the protection of its citizens at the present time. Syria's presence in Beirut, far from reassuring the population, causes unrest, especially within the Christian Maronite community. The militias, which have nearly all withdrawn from Beirut, continue to provide protection for citizens in the zones that remain under their control. The arbitrary nature of that protection, however, makes it difficult, if not impossible, to assess in detail the human rights situation in Lebanon.

According to most observers, militia members and all those who have taken sides openly run higher risks than ordinary citizens in returning to Lebanon under the present circumstances (Hudson 25 Oct. 1990; Sigler 26 Oct. 1990).

As mentioned in the preceding section, all those who speak out against Syrian domination are in danger. Moreover, Middle East International emphasizes that when the Syrian army stormed the Ministry of Defence on 12 October, it took possession of the personal files of all Lebanese citizens with the slightest involvement in politics (Middle East International 26 Oct. 1990, 9). In addition, the Syrian army controls passport and customs checks at Beirut Airport as well as roadblocks on the way to the airport (Shamah 25 Oct. 1990). In addition, the politico-religious conflict which has divided Lebanon for over fifteen years will no doubt lead, for some time to come, to accounts being settled not only between the various militias but also between the militias and Syrian forces (Mideast Mirror 22 Oct. 1990, 23; Sigler 26 Oct. 1990; Hudson 25 Oct. 1990; Osseiran 25 Oct. 1990).

For the time being, anyone who returns to Lebanon will not find a country that has regained its internal balance, but on the contrary, a situation of instability that has not been overcome since Michel Aoun was driven out.

5.           BIBLIOGRAPHY

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