Assessment for Tuvinians in Russia

Risk Assessment | Analytic Summary | References

Risk Assessment

Tuvinians are unlikely to engage in violent rebellion in the near future. Protest in the previous eight years has been almost non-existent, despite the continued presence of political, economic and ecological grievances. The republic's economic dependence on Moscow militates against violent revolt. While the Tuva are territorially concentrated, constitute a majority of the republic's population, and have a moderately strong identity, they nevertheless exhibit relatively low levels of group organization.

Low levels of protest are likely, especially if economic conditions do not improve and if the region continues to suffer from environmental deterioration. The only noticeable protest of late occurred in 2002 over Russia's decision to deny Dalai Lama a visa to enter the country on a planned trip (widely believed to be a political show of support to China): while two protests took place, only one of them attracted a crowd larger than 100 people. There were also reports of some hunger strikes. The absence of any other significant political or cultural restrictions mean that protests will probably not escalate into mass protests.

Tuvinians are most at risk from social problems and ecological degradation, rather than political repression. High rates of alcoholism and drug addiction and recurrent outbreaks of disease, along with the degradation in natural resources, make economic development a significant challenge. However, economic growth (if somewhat equitably distributed) would go far in ameliorating lingering anti-Russian sentiment and ethnic tension.

Analytic Summary

Tuvinians are of mixed Turkic and Mongol descent whose homeland lies north of the Russian-Mongolian border. Tuva is within a strategic zone long contested by various empires and has been occupied by a succession of conquerors including Turks, Chinese, Uigurs, Kyrgyz, Mongols, and Russians.

Until the twentieth century, Chinese and Mongols posed greater threats to Tuva's security. It was not until 1914, while attempting to break away from a China weakened by revolution, civil war, and foreign intervention, that Tuva fell under Russia's control as a Tsarist protectorate. In the two decades after 1924 Tuva was nominally independent, and remained so until 1944 when Stalin benevolently granted Tuva's "petition" to accede to the USSR (AUTLOST = 3). Like the neighboring Buryat people, to whom they are ethnically and religiously linked, Tuvinians have been compelled to delicately balance competing pressures emanating from Russia, China, and Mongolia. Even under the USSR, Tuva maintained links with the pro-Soviet Mongolian Communist regime.

Most Tuvinians live in the Tuva Republic (GROUPCON = 3), where they comprise approximately 65 percent of the population and have one of the highest birth rates in Russia (DMBIRT00-03 = 2). The Republic of Tuva is economically dependent on the Russian government, and poverty is rampant. Tuvinians suffer from a drug addiction rate four times the national average. Years of Soviet domination have left the republic environmentally ravaged (DMENV01-03 = 1) which, combined with the economic collapse following Soviet collapse, has left Tuvinians with poor relative health (DMSICK03 = 2).

Since the fall of the Soviet Union, Tuvinians have agitated for ecological clean-up, economic development and greater political autonomy. Some Tuvinians have also advocated political independence (AUTGR396 = 3). Tuvinians also desire greater economic opportunities (ECOGR396 = 3) and the right and the means to preserve their culture (CULTGR296 = 3). Republican authorities have periodically insisted on their right to secede from Russia. Like other ethnic republics, Tuva has sought to maintain a certain liberty of action in regard to Moscow, as when authorities protested against the deployment of Tuvinians in rebel Chechnya. However, the dire economic situation in the region makes it dependent on Moscow and gives Tuvinian authorities weaker leverage in bargaining with Moscow. As a result, the Tuvinian constitution has recently been amended in order to remove differences between local laws and the federal constitution, including the removal of a secession clause in Tuva's constitution.

Tuvinians are represented by few organizations (GOJPA02, GOJPA03 = 2), which are primarily conventional political parties and cultural movements. Of these, only a more recent party, "Choice of People", seemed dominant and this party was formed by Tuva President Oorzhak. The Tuva have a moderately strong sense of group identity (COHESX9 = 4).

In the 1990s, Tuva was the scene of violent conflict: in mid-1990, Moscow-based media reported on the first organized anti-Russian attacks to be staged in the USSR in many years. Although these reports later proved exaggerations, in the post-Soviet era the republic has witnessed serious ethnic tension, occasionally rising to the level of small-scale violence. In February 1995, the only Russian in charge of an administrative district was murdered by unknown assailants. Afterwards, authorities denied that ethnicity played a role in the killing, but that did little to quell fears of further assaults.

The region calmed significantly in the late 1990s. There have been no recent reports of ethnic violence and levels of protest remain low (PROT98X = 1; PROT00-01, PROT03 = 0).

References

BBC Summary of World Broadcasts, numerous stories, 1990-2003.

International Alert. Inter-Ethnic Relations in the Republic of Tuva. London: 1993.

Olson, James S. An Ethnohistorical Dictionary of the Russian and Soviet Empires. Westport, CT: Greenwood Press, 1994.

Reuters World Service, numerous stories, 1990-1995.

RFE/RL, various reports, 2000-2003.

TASS, numerous stories, 1990-1995.

Tishkov, Valery. The Principal Problems and Prospects of the Development of National-Territorial Entities in the Russian Federation. Cambridge: Harvard University Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project, n.d. [probably 1992].

Wixman, Ronald. The Peoples of the USSR: An Ethnographic Handbook. Armonk, NY: M. E. Sharpe, 1984.